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DTN Midday Grain Comments 05/13 10:50

05/13/2021


DTN Midday Grain Comments 05/13 10:50

Grain Futures Diving Deep Into the Red Midday Thursday

Corn is 33 to 35 cents lower with new crop 23 to 25 cents lower, soybeans
are 43 to 47 cents lower with new crop 37 to 39 cents lower and wheat 17 to 24
cents lower.

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

MARKET SUMMARY:

The U.S. stock market is firmer with the Dow up 380 points. The U.S. Dollar
Index is 0.08 higher. Interest rate products are firmer. Energies are weaker
with crude down 2.00. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are flat to
weaker with gold narrowly mixed.

CORN:

Corn trade is 33 to 35 cents lower on old-crop corn, with new crop 24 to 26
cents lower. There is broader selling amid commodity weakness with trade
holding about a nickel off limit lower. The WASDE report had old-crop carryout
at 1.257 billion, in line with expectations, and new crop at 1.507 billion
versus 1.36 billion expected with trendline yield at 179.5 bushels per acre.
World stocks were 292.3 million metric tons on new crop versus 286 mmt
expected. South American estimates are not seeing the expected amount despite
Brazilian double-crop weather. Ethanol margins remain fairly stable and should
get a boost from the corn pullback. Cooler weather short term after rains
should give way to warmer and wetter action by the end of the week with the
lower two-thirds of the Corn Belt inline for rains. Brazil continues to
struggle with dryness during pollination with crop estimates still falling.
Corn basis is holding firm throughout the belt but sustained barge delays could
add pressure quickly. Weekly export sales saw old crop at -113,400 metric tons
and 2.08 million metric tons of new crop. On the July contract, chart
resistance is the fresh contract high at $7.35 3/4 with support the 20-day at
$6.63.

SOYBEANS:

Soybeans are 43 to 47 cents lower on the front months, and 37 to 39 cents
lower on new crop with trade fading further from the fresh highs Wednesday and
spread action turning weaker. Meal is $17.50 to $18.50 lower and oil is 0.20
cent to 0.30 cent lower. The WASDE report showed old crop carryout at 120
million bushels, in line with expectations, with new crop at 140 million also
in line with expectations. South American production was unchanged and new-crop
world stocks at 91.1 million metric tons. Planters will continue to roll short
term with some areas of rain slowing action and warmer temps to boost
emergence. South America should continue to see shipping progress short term,
while domestic crush will carry U.S. basis. Weekly export sales were soft at
94,300 metric tons of old crop, 102,500 of new crop, old meal at 74,600 mt, new
at 102,500 mt and oil at 800 mt. On the July soybean chart support is the
20-day at $15.33, with resistance the fresh high at $16.67 1/2.

WHEAT:

Wheat trade is 17 to 24 cents lower at midday with spring wheat leading on
weather and weaker corn action bogging down the winter wheats along with the
dollar rally holding to encourage selling, along with the WASDE report coming
in slightly higher than expected at 872 million bushels of old crop and 774 of
new versus 844 mb and 743 mb expected, respectively, and yield on winter wheat
rising to 52.1 bushels per acre versus 50.9 bpa. KC is at 42-cent discount to
Chicago with Minneapolis now 39 cents above Chicago with intramonth spreads
mixed. Seasonal weather on the Plains should boost growth with dry concerns for
spring wheat staying in place with some pockets of relief in recent days. Other
Northern Hemisphere weather will continue to be watched as well with little
fresh news on the front. Weekly export sales were soft at 30,300 metric tons of
old crop and 268,000 metric tons of new crop. KC July on the chart has eased
below the 20-day at $6.86 overnight with the lower Bollinger Band below that at
$6.18.

David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com

Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala




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